COUNCIL CHANGES

While the Mayor’s election has gotten the bulk of the citywide coverage this winter, it’s the two contested City Council races (Districts 4 and 6) that could end up changing the direction of Oakland. Then again, of course, they might not.

In the Jerry Brown era, City Council has often settled into a rough minority-majority division on its most contested issues. The anchors of this split, on either side, are its two most ideologically-distanced members: moderate-conservative Dick Spees on the one hand, liberal-progressive Nancy Nadel on the other. But unlike Berkeley or San Francisco, where the factions are divided along clearly-defined lines, the Oakland City Council factions can’t be as easily put into ideological boxes.

The more-to-the-left side of the aisle (if we can call it that, for convenience sake) is smaller, but more cohesive. Nadel sometimes votes alone. More often she is joined by Jane Brunner, such as on the AB436 vote. Sometimes it’s Nadel who supports Brunner’s lead, such as on Affordable Housing Linkage Fees to developers. But Nadel and Brunner are not in lockstep; they sometimes part, such as when Brunner joined with Spees to sponsor the recent Residential Rent Arbitration ordinance, with Nadel opposing. Less often, Nadel is joined by Danny Wan on highly-contested issues and, sometimes, it’s a Nadel-Brunner-Wan vote forming the loyal opposition.

The more-to-the-right side of Oakland City Council is harder to put your finger on. It’s most powerful member is Ignacio De La Fuente, both because of his position as Council President and because of his influence over the vote of Councilmember Moses Mayne. But sometimes the lead is taken by Henry Chang, sometimes by Spees, sometimes by Larry Reid (such as on the Sideshow issue), and sometimes by Wan (on AB436, for example).

This more moderate coalition is more likely to support the position of development, such as on the Port Living Wage issue, or AB436. But calling its members conservative would be misleading. It’s more complicated than that. While Reid, for example, is a strong supporter of the police department, he is also the Councilmember who is most critical of corporate AT&T and its higher-rates-but-lower-service Oakland cable policies. De La Fuente opposed turning the Montgomery Ward building into a high-rise development, and is presently pushing the Foreign ID ordinance, certainly one of the most non-conservative issues around.

So how would the March elections affect the Council balance?

Spees is not running for re-election in 4. The two front-runners are attorney David Stein and School Board member Jean Quan. In 6, Mayne is being most seriously challenged by Desley Brooks, chief of staff of County Supervisor Keith Carson.

If Mayne wins re-election in 6 and Stein wins in 4, expect the Council to change slightly, but not much. I can find little in Stein’s background or on his website to suggest that he would make a radical break with the Spees’ positions. Maybe Stein would be a bit less conservative, but probably not significantly. Spees, after all, was never a member of the radical right.

If it’s Brooks in 6 and Quan in 4, well, that would be a different Council altogether. Brooks is probably far more independent than Mayne has been. And Quan might be expected to jump almost immediately into a leadership position. Coming from a radical background, she settled into a role on the School Board as an effective behind-the-scenes consensus builder. She’s worked on issues with De La Fuente, and is close to State Senator Don Perata, who has some influence on Council. She’d probably pull members like Chang and Reid to the left, every once in a while. Bottom line? Those lonely 6-2 protest votes might more often end up 4-4, or even a 5-3 on the progressive side.

Also, De La Fuente is no dummy. If Oakland City Council moves to the left, expect him to move along with it a bit, just to keep out in front. And in this scenario the Council would, for the first time, be evenly divided between women and men. Not sure what that would mean, exactly, but it certainly would be different.

If Quan wins and not Brooks, or vice versa…well, that’s too complicated to figure out.

All in all, a lot could change after the March Council elections. Or a lot could stay the same. All depends. We’ll see.